Betting On The Weather

Russell asked us to send him his winter boots recently, and it is probably a good thing he did.  Weather forecasters are saying that a weak El Nino current exists in the Pacific Ocean, and about 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino condition correlates with colder than expected winters in the northeast United States.

What does colder than normal weather in the northeast mean for our economy?  Why, increased heating oil use, of course.  Not surprisingly, commodities traders already are increasing their net long positions — which in effect bet that the price of heating oil will rise — and heating oil prices are rising.  It is the capitalist system at work.

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