Condemned To Repetition

George Santayana famously observed:  “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

I thought of old George when I read this article reporting that some banks, amazingly, have decided to once again offer zero down payment subprime mortgages.  Apparently it’s only taken ten years for banks to forget the lessons they purportedly learned during the last subprime mortgage lending bubble, when the collapse of countless numbers of bad loans brought the economy to the brink of total disaster.

tips-for-buying-foreclosed-homes-mstAccording to the article quoted above; “Borrowers can have low credit scores, but have to go through an education session about the program and submit all necessary documents, from income statements to phone bills. Then they go through counseling to understand their monthly budget and ensure they can afford the mortgage payment. The loans are 15- or 30-year fixed with interest rates below market, about 4.5 percent.”  In addition to the “education session” and documentation and counseling requirements, recipients of the loans have to live in the houses with the mortgages.

The lending agencies think that residency requirement will keep out the investors looking to flip houses, which is one of the conditions that contributed to the prior housing bubble and subprime mortgage debacle.  Another purported protection against disaster is that the housing market is strong, there’s a shortage of homes for sale at entry-level prices, and therefore homeowners who can’t make their payments supposedly will be able to sell their houses and repay their mortgage loans.  And proponents of the lending program say it helps poor people and working families to buy houses and build personal wealth.

I’m all for people becoming homeowners if that’s their dream, but if banks think that things like education sessions and counseling are going to allow them to avoid problems when the economy turns — as it inevitably will — they are dreaming.  It’s not hard to forecast that some aggressive loan officers will push the rules, some house-flippers will figure out a way to take advantage of the programs, some bad apples will take out the mortgages and then abandon the houses when times get tough, and then we may well be back in the same perilous situation that existed in 2007 and 2008.

I hope not everyone has forgotten what happened to bring on the Great Recession.  And I hope some political leader makes it clear that banks are welcome to follow whatever practices they think are appropriate for their businesses, but this time, if it all goes to hell, taxpayers won’t be bailing them out — again.

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