Day Of Reckoning

Tomorrow is Election Day in Ohio, and the hoo-hah about Issue 2 finally will end. Unless there has been catastrophic polling failure — or Ohioans have been misleading pollsters for chuckles and giggles — Issue 2 will be defeated and the old collective bargaining rules applicable to public employees will be reinstituted.

Both sides have poured huge sums into the Issue 2 campaign, and anyone who regularly watches the news has seen more Issue 2-related ads than they care to remember.  The ads haven’t exactly been objective treatments of the relevant issues, either.  We had some friends in from out of town over the weekend, and after seeing countless Issue 2 commercials they were totally mystified about what Issue 2 was.  The only thing they knew for sure was that a yes vote or a no vote would effectively mean the end of civilization as we know it.

Whichever way tomorrow’s election goes, I suspect we haven’t seen the last of public employee-related initiatives on the Ohio ballot.  Those who want to cut government spending naturally are going to want to focus on public employee salaries, benefits, and jobs — and this election has shown that public-sector unions won’t be shy about mounting petition drives and spending significant sums to protect those salaries, benefits, and jobs.

The Public Employee Pension Problem, From Sea To Shining Sea

It seems like every day brings a new story about how states across the country are struggling with public employee pension and health care benefit costs.  In Ohio the issue is at the forefront due to the upcoming vote on Issue 2, and I’ve written about the huge challenges confronting Rhode Island and Illinois.

Now California — which may have the biggest problem of all — is trying to work through the issues.  On Thursday Governor Jerry Brown declared California’s current system unsustainable and unveiled an approach that tries to deal with the inevitable effects of demographics.  Brown, a Democrat, proposes raising the retirement age for most government workers from 55 to 67, increasing employee contributions to 50 percent of pension costs, and moving the state’s system from a complete defined benefits program to one that includes a 401(k) component, where employee benefits depend on their contributions and the performance of investments they have selected.  He also proposes reforms to ensure that pensions are based on regular salaries, not on bonuses or overtime.  Public employee unions have been critical, arguing that they have recently given concessions and that any changes to benefits should be the product of collective bargaining.

From sea to shining sea, the handwriting is on the wall:  states and local governments eventually must grapple with meaningful reforms to budget-busting public employee pension and benefit costs.  The Ohio General Assembly attempted to do that with the legislation that is the subject of Issue 2.  If Ohio voters reject Issue 2 come Election Day, the issue is not going to go away.  Why not tackle it now?

I’ve Made Up My Mind On Issue 2

Early voting has has been underway for more than a week now on Issue 2, the issue dealing with public employee issues.  Today I got an email from Ohio’s Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown, urging me to vote early against the issue.  I’ve going to wait until the election to vote, but the email got me to thinking about Issue 2.

After some reflection, I’ve decided I’m going to vote in favor of Issue 2.  I recognize that there are arguments the other way, but I’ve made up my mind.  Here’s why:  I don’t think the collective bargaining model works with public employees.  In the classic case, workers collectively bargain with bosses who own the business.  The bosses have skin in the game and an incentive to vigorously bargain with the employee’s union.  Our political leaders don’t have the same kind of skin in the game, however.  To the contrary, they may have been elected with the active support and contributions of public employee unions.  I also think that it is not unreasonable to ask public employees to contribute more toward their health insurance and pensions.  Many in the private sector pay 100% of the cost of both of those benefits, without any employer contribution.  Add to that the fact that there is a lot more job security in the public employee world, and I think that public employees have a pretty good deal.

I don’t believe that Issue 2 would solve our governmental budget problems by itself, and I defer to no one in my admiration for police officers and firefighters, but I also think we simply cannot afford to continue to expand the size, scope, and cost of our state and local governments.  Every police officer and every firefighter may be essential — but not every teacher is, and not every clerical worker at the BMV is, either.

If Issue 2 gives our leaders more flexibility to deal with bloated public employee payrolls and to avoid the kind of crippling, long-term pension obligations that are such a problem in states like California — or, for that matter, in countries like Greece — I think that is a good idea.  I’m going to vote for Issue 2 because I think it is the prudent thing to do.

The Issue 2 Gap Narrows

The Issue 2 ad barrage continues, and polling indicates the onslaught may be moving public opinion.  The question for Issue 2’s backers and opponents is:  how far, and how fast?

According to the latest Quinnepiac University poll, 51 percent of Ohioans say they would vote against Issue 2, and thereby repeal legislation that will affect collective bargaining and other work conditions for public employees.  That’s still a majority, but it reflects a significant shift in opinion since the prior Quinnepiac poll on that topic, which was taken in July.  In two months, the gap between those who favor repeal and those who oppose it has closed from 24 percent to 13 percent.

Although the news reports on the polling data are focusing on the erosion in the support for repeal, I’d say the odds still favor repeal.  Ads on Issue 2 have been running for weeks now and the people who were easily persuaded have already been persuaded.  In short, the low-hanging fruit has already been picked — and unlike a presidential election, there won’t be highly publicized debates or the possibility of gaffes that might have a discernible effect on voter preferences on Issue 2.  Unless there is some blockbuster ad campaign ready to be rolled out between now and the election, those who seek to uphold the public employee collective bargaining law probably will have to bank on voter turnout working in their favor.  Right now, the law seems likely to survive only if the fact of an off-year election, no statewide races, and a lingering recession operate to depress the turnout of Democratic voters.

 

The Issue 2 Onslaught And The Firefighters’ Brigade

In Ohio, you can’t watch a football game without seeing commercials, pro and con, on Issue 2.  The ad onslaught, funded by well-heeled groups on both sides of the issue, has begun in earnest, and the election is still six weeks away.

State Issue 2 is a public referendum on various public employee issues.  A “yes” vote would uphold SB 5, legislation passed by the Ohio General Assembly earlier this year that limits certain collective bargaining rights of public employees, requires public employees to contribute at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums and 10 percent of pension contributions, and make a number of additional changes.  A “no” vote on Issue 2 would overturn that law.

The big question right now is whether the flood of commercials will advance meaningful public knowledge about Issue 2 and its impact.  Would an affirmation of SB 5 cripple public employee rights and put public safety at risk, as opponents claim?  Or, would the approval of SB 5 give cash-strapped state and local governments the flexibility to save money while maintaining public services, as its proponents contend?

So far, the ads I’ve seen suggest that Issue 2 is all about firefighters and the staff members who work for Ohio’s 33 state senators.  Of course, that is not the case.  Firefighters are attractive subjects of TV commercials, but they represent a small fraction of the public employees who would be affected by SB 5.  According to an article earlier this year in the Cleveland Plain Dealer, there are nearly 650,000 state and local government employees in Ohio; in Cuyahoga County alone there are more than 76,000 local government employees.  In contrast, Cleveland, the largest local government in Cuyahoga County, employs 900 firefighters.

I’d like to see commercials that get beyond firefighters and Ohio Senate staffers and get to the heart of the issues on Issue 2.  Under our current scheme, how do public employees really fare versus those working in the private sector?  How much money could state and local governments reasonably expect to save if SB 5 is affirmed?  What abuses, if any, should cause us to change the current approach toward public employees?  If voters are to be informed about the merits of Issue 2, those are the kinds of questions that need to be answered.

The Wisconsin Recall Election, And What It Means For Ohio

Wisconsin’s big recall election showdown is over.  Democrats won two of the six elections to recall Republicans, leaving the Democrats one short of the number necessary to get a majority in the Wisconsin Senate.

Each side is spinning the results.  Republicans boast that they survived, despite an onslaught of union money, ads, and get-out-the-vote work.  Democrats tout what they say is an historic result in recalling two Senators.  In short, both sides think the election sent an unmistakable message to Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the rest of the Wisconsin political establishment — they just disagree on what that message was.

Ohio is the next battleground.  In November, Ohioans will vote on Issue 2, which would overturn a law limiting public employee collective bargaining.  What do the Wisconsin results mean for that Ohio referendum?  I’m not sure they mean much of anything.  Wisconsin’s recall election necessarily raised questions about the individual candidates — one of the defeated Republicans, for example, had an affair that apparently hurt his chances — whereas Ohio’s Issue 2 will present a straight, up-or-down vote on the concept of limiting public employee collective bargaining.

Ohio polls seem to indicate that a majority favors repeal of the law.  Wisconsin’s relevance in Ohio, if any, may turn on the actual results of the Wisconsin collective bargaining law that gave rise to the recall elections in the first place.  If the results produce meaningful savings for local governments and school districts, as some argue is the case, that fact may resonate with Ohio voters who are worried about government spending and cause them to look more favorably on the idea of keeping the Ohio law on the books.

Recall Wisconsin?

Remember Wisconsin?  It’s been knocked off the front pages by more pressing stories, but earlier this year Wisconsin dominated the national news when Governor Scott Walker sought to reform public employee collective bargaining laws, Democratic Senators fled the state, and protesters occupied the Wisconsin Statehouse for days.

Today Wisconsin is back in the news, writing another chapter in the saga of the public employee collective bargaining law.  Six Republican Senators face unusual mid-summer recall votes today.  If Democrats can win three of those seats, the Wisconsin Senate will flip to Democratic control.  Proponents and opponents of the collective bargaining law have poured millions of dollars — at least $28 million, according to estimates — into advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.  Polling data indicates that all six of the races are close, with turnout likely to tell the tale.  And who can predict how many voters will show up at the polls on a hot summer day?

In Ohio, there is special interest in Wisconsin because the Buckeye State followed Wisconsin’s lead in enacting a public employee collective bargaining law.  In Ohio, the fight will resume in November, when the electorate will vote on a public referendum on that law.  Wisconsin’s votes today could be an indicator of how the political tides are flowing.  I also wonder whether the recent national news about government spending, debt, and credit ratings will have any effect on voters.  Wisconsin Republicans have defended the collective bargaining law, in part, on the ground that it has meant savings for cash-strapped state and local government entities.  If recent events have made voters more concerned about government spending, that may work to the Republicans’ advantage.

Does Limiting Public Employee Collective Bargaining Save Money For State And Local Governments?

In Wisconsin and Ohio, new Republican majorities in state legislatures, and new Republican governors, have modified public employee collective bargaining rights and argued that it is part of an overall effort to bring state and local government budgets back into balance.  Democrats have responded that the budget control argument is a bogus fig leaf and that the real motivation for the Republicans’ actions is union-busting, pure and simple.

It therefore is interesting that in Massachusetts — Massachusetts! — the House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly in favor of a bill to restrict the ability of municipal public employees to collectively bargain about health care benefits.  Moreover, the House effort was led by Democrats, who argued that the changes will help struggling cities and towns.  Indeed, the Democratic Speaker of the House contended that the changes would save cash-strapped municipalities $100 million and allow them to maintain more jobs and provide more services.

The Massachusetts initiative still has to pass the Senate and be signed by the Governor, so it may well not become law.  Still, the fact that Democrats in the Massachusetts House supported such a measure on budget grounds seems like a powerful argument for the proposition that modifying public employee collective bargaining rights is a legitimate way to achieve significant savings in government spending.  If Democrats have accepted that argument in Massachusetts, how can Democrats in Ohio and Wisconsin contend that similar efforts in their states are motivated wholly by partisan politics and mindless anti-union sentiment?

Weirdness In Wisconsin

Wisconsin — home to the Green Bay Packers and their cheesehead fans, different varieties of beer, and countless solid Midwestern burghers of Germanic lineage — has a long and storied tradition of political ferment and dissent.  With the bizarre happenings in Madison over the past month or so, Wisconsin is living up to its rich political and cultural reputation.

Three weeks ago, Wisconsin Senate Democrats fled the state, hoping that last-ditch tactic would prevent a quorum and therefore a vote on a bill to change collective bargaining rules for government employees.  They believed their procedural “Hail Mary” — coupled with constant protests by teacher and public employee unions and union supporters in the Wisconsin state capitol — would exert pressure on Governor Scott Walker and Republicans who supported the bill.  The Republicans held firm, however, and the parties were at an impasse.

Now the Republicans have made the Democrats pay for their high-risk tactic.  Yesterday, while the Democrat Senators remained out-of-state, Republicans stripped the collective bargaining bill of the budgeting provisions that presented the quorum problems and then passed it through the Wisconsin Senate.  Because they chose to absent themselves from the state, no Democrats were present for the final vote or to raise objections to the procedure.  The bill now goes to the state assembly.  In the meantime, protesters flooded, once again, into the Wisconsin state capitol.

In the linked article, the leader of Wisconsin Senate Democrats accuses Republicans of showing “disrespect for the people of Wisconsin” and conspiring to “take government away from the people.”  We’ll have to see whether that spin has any resonance with Wisconsin voters — but it is hard to see how Republicans who stayed on the job in the face of public protest, waited for weeks for petulant Democrats to return to the governmental process, and then enacted legislation in a public forum in the Democrats’ absence, showed more “disrespect for the people of Wisconsin” than the Democrats who tried to take their ball and go home.

Senate Bill 5 Moves On

By a one-vote margin, the Ohio Senate today passed Senate Bill 5, the controversial legislation to modify the collective bargaining rights of public employees.  The vote came as pro-union demonstrators again flooded the Ohio Statehouse and its grounds to try to stir up opposition to the measure.  The union protesters manage to get six Republicans to break ranks with leadership and vote against the bill — but they needed seven defections to kill the bill.  The measure now moves to the Ohio House, where it is expected to pass.  Governor John Kasich supports the bill and would sign it if it makes it to his desk.

I respect the public employees who came to Columbus to exercise their free speech rights and oppose Senate Bill 5, but I believe it is a necessary measure.  Ohio is facing a huge budget deficit, and many Ohio municipalities also are facing budget shortfalls.  A significant part of the state and local governmental budgets are devoted to public employees compensation and benefits.  Senate Bill 5 seems like a reasonable step to deal with those costs.  Public employees could still bargain about wages, hours, and working conditions, but not health care, pension benefits, or sick time.  Public employees also would not be able to strike.  The move should allow Ohio state and local governmental entities to bring public employee health care and pension benefit contributions in line with the prevailing approaches in the private sector, and the savings produced as a result will help to make up the budget shortfalls.

We shouldn’t kid ourselves, however.  Senate Bill 5 is not going to fix Ohio’s budget gap by itself.  Our legislators need to roll up their sleeve and continue to look carefully, and skeptically, at state programs, state departments, and state agencies and decide whether they truly are needed, and if so at what funding level.  What services are critical, and which provide non-essential services that we simply cannot afford any longer?  Public employees in Ohio should not be the only group that bears the brunt of necessary budget cuts.

 

At The Ohio Statehouse Union Rally

A view from the Statehouse steps onto the northwest lawn

Today, after lunch, Richard and I walked over to the Ohio Statehouse to check out the big union rally against Senate Bill 5, the bill that would affect the ability of public employees to engage in collective bargaining rights.  I had been hearing the hubbub outside my office window and was eager to see the turnout.

We got to the Statehouse about 12:45 and entered at the Third Street entrance.  There were some union folks out on Third Street and milling around the entrance.  We saw people wearing public employee union t-shirts, jackets and buttons in the map room and in the Atrium above.  Rows of chairs had been set up in the Atrium, facing each other across a center aisle, and as we walked through a large, leather-lunged woman was leading the crowd in “We want respect” chants.  I would estimate that several hundred people were in the Atrium, and they were in good spirits.

Signs at today's Statehouse rally

We crossed through the Statehouse Rotunda and exited out the Broad Street entrance, which was where the real action was.  A temporary stage had been erected and two singers with guitars were singing union songs.  The crowd covered about two-thirds of the west lawn and sidewalk, with people sitting on the benches and standing on parts of the McKinley memorial.  There were lots of union t-shirts, hats, and some very creative signs criticizing Governor Kasich.  Some of the signs seemed to be generated by outside forces.  For example, we saw several signs referring to Governor Kasich and Wisconsin Governor Walker as “Koch-heads” or “Koch addicts,” and I’m not sure most union workers would focus on the Koch brothers as sign material without some kind of prompting.

The people at the rally were pleasant and friendly, and the whole gathering had an upbeat open-air feel.  The Ohio Highway Patrol had officers at points in the Statehouse, and they were professional and friendly as always.  We later heard an estimate that 8,500 people were at the rally.  I’m not sure it was that large when we were there, but there definitely were thousands of people in attendance.  We did not see any counter-protest.

Regardless of your politics, if you are downtown restauranteur you have to like these protests.  We saw lots of protestors crowding into the Tip Top, Dunkin Donuts, and other restaurants in the core downtown Columbus area.

Democracy In Action, American Style

Yesterday the Cave Dweller and I went to lunch at a nearby sandwich shop.  As we were eating we noticing people with union t-shirts and signs heading toward the Ohio Statehouse.  After we finished our lunch we decided to take a lap around the Statehouse to see what was going on.  It was a journey well worth taking.

In Ohio, as in Wisconsin and other states, the ability of public employees to engage in collective bargaining is being revisited by the legislature, and the pro-union forces were having a big rally.  As we approached the Statehouse along Third Street, buses were rolling up and discharging union members who were joining the rally.  The crowd, probably numbered in the hundreds by that point, began a spirited “Kill the bill!” chant.  Union members were handing out fliers with the schedule for the day.  The TV trucks were there, with their satellite dishes extended, and we ran into an NPS radio reporter who was happy to have some good audio to use in her report.  As we turned the corner of the Statehouse, we saw more union members heading toward the rally.  At the corner of Broad and High we watched as a firefighters bagpipe and drum corps marched by playing some unknown tune, their kilts flapping in the cold winter wind.  A policeman who was holding back traffic gave a high five to one of the marchers.  By the time we got back to the firm, a helicopter — probably from one of the local stations — was hovering overhead to get some crowd shots.  And when I drove home that night I heard that the rally would be capped by a lawsuit contesting the decisions on how many of the rally attendees were permitted to enter the Statehouse.

Regardless of your position on the issue at hand, you had to be proud.  What could be more American that concerned citizens petitioning their government and making their views known to their elected representatives?  Our country would be a better place if more of our fellow citizens took a direct interest in what their governments are doing — and perhaps marched down to the Statehouse, kilted or not, to let their representatives know that they are paying attention.

 

Protest, And Response, In Wisconsin

We are learning a lot about a changing America, and a changing political landscape, from watching the ongoing story in Wisconsin about legislation that would affect collective bargaining rules for public employees.  The story began with public employee unions flexing their muscle.  They prevailed upon their members — many of whom apparently called in “sick” — to flood the state capitol in protest.  They also prevailed upon Democratic state senators to flee the state and bring the legislative process to a halt due to lack of a quorum.

But then something surprising happened.  Yesterday, a counter-demonstration occurred, as thousands of “Tea Party” activists and other citizens came to the state capitol to support Wisconsin’s Republican Governor in his budget-cutting efforts.  In all, police estimated that 68,000 people came to the state capitol to either support or oppose the collective bargaining bill, and they did so peacefully.  Even more interesting, police report that there were heated arguments between the opposing sides, but no violence.

It is not surprising that teachers and public employees would turn out to protest; their pay and benefits will be directly affected by the outcome.  What I think is extraordinary, however, is that thousands of citizens whose interests are not directly affected were motivated to spend a Saturday outside, advocating in support of the budget-cutting efforts of Wisconsin’s governor.  It says a lot about the deep level of alarm about out-of-control spending that thousands of people would spend their precious weekend hours at a counter-protest.  Wisconsin’s governor, and his Republican allies in the state legislature, must have been encouraged by the strong show of support — which probably is the tip of a much larger iceberg.

It also says something that thousands of people could turn out to support competing sides of a hotly debated issue without violence.  The teachers, public employees, and citizens who went to the state capitol to exercise their rights to free speech and assembly look a lot more adult than the Wisconsin Democratic Senators who turned tail and ran out of state rather than participate in the political process as they were elected to do.

Weirdness In Wisconsin, Coming To Ohio?

The old saying is that “elections have consequences.”  That truism is playing out in Wisconsin, where Republicans were swept into control of statewide offices in November.  Wisconsin Democrats and their supporters are trying to thwart the Republicans’ agenda — to the point where Democrats in the Wisconsin Senate have high-tailed it out of the state to prevent the Senate from achieving the quorum it needs to conduct business.

The key issue at present is public employee unions.  New Governor Scott Walker and Republican legislators want to change the collective bargaining rights of most public employees and require those employees to pay half of their pension costs and 12.8 percent of their health care costs.  Wisconsin is facing significant budget shortfalls, and the measures are expected to save $300 million during the next two-year budget cycle.  Public employees, their unions, and Democrats in the Wisconsin legislature adamantly oppose these efforts.  Public employees have flooded the Wisconsin capitol building to protest; many were teachers who called in “sick” to participate.  Meanwhile, stout-hearted Democratic state senators boarded a bus and fled Wisconsin so they would be beyond the jurisdiction of the Senate Sergeant at Arms.  The Democratic senators who skedaddled have been found at a Best Western resort in Rockford, Illinois.

It tells you a lot about the power of public employee unions in the Democratic party that they can prevail upon elected officials to engage in such a petulant and embarrassing stunt.  And it tells you even more about the sweet deal that public employees must have in the Badger State if paying only half of their pension costs and less than 13 percent of their health care costs causes them to prevail upon their Democratic allies to go to the mattresses.  Most private sector workers I know would be thrilled to have their employers paying half of their pension contributions and 87 percent of health care costs.  And who do you suppose is paying for the sumptuous lodging at the Rockford Best Western?

This drama will be reenacted elsewhere, as cash-strapped states look to employee costs as a place to achieve savings.  The issue may be coming to a head soon here in Ohio, where a bill attempting to overhaul collective bargaining for public employees is working its way through the legislative process.  Yesterday there were large rallies for and against the measure at the Ohio Statehouse.