For the sake of my blood pressure, I try not to pay much attention to politics. But when the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives is voted out of that office for the first time in American history, you have to sit up and take notice.
The AP reports, in the article linked above, that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted through the actions of “a contingent of hard-right conservatives.” I can’t speak to the politics underlying the historic decision–the weird maneuvering and infighting that you find in the halls of Congress is beyond my ken–but we can certainly say as a matter of simple math that the whole scenario was made possible by the fact that Republicans have a very slim majority in the House. There are 221 Republicans, 212 Democrats, and 2 vacancies in that chamber, which means that losing the support of only a handful of Republicans was enough to tip the balance. That put a lot of political power in the hands of a few House members.
What does this all mean? It’s a historic event, literally, but short term the House will undoubtedly figure out how to elect a new Speaker, and Congress will go on. Long term, however, there might well be more significant consequences. Right now, America seems very divided–and very evenly divided. That even division gives a lot of clout to the fringes in both parties. And you wonder if those lurking at the edges of the two parties will find that they really enjoy having that clout, and conclude that they would have even more if they left their party and set up a new party that more precisely matched their particular views. If that were to happen, we would see the need for a lot more explicit coalition-building in our political processes, as in Israel or many European countries, rather than expecting Democrats and Republicans to routinely follow the leader in straight party-line votes.
The United States has long been an exclusively two-party country, but that doesn’t mean it always has to be that way. With the internet providing a ready avenue for reaching out to people of similar political persuasions, starting a new party is probably easier now than it has ever been. Who knows? Soon we may no longer speak in terms of red and blue or donkey and elephant, and instead need to add new colors to the spectrum and recruit some new party mascots. I believe the dodo and the cuckoo are available.