The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in May to a recent low, causing some to fear that we may be on the cusp of the dreaded “double-dip” or “W” recession. Economists expressed surprise at the news.
The only thing surprising about this news item is that some economists are still expressing surprise that American consumers aren’t more bullish about things. Seriously, what world do these guys live in? Leaving apart the weird notion that you can gauge something intangible like “confidence” with anything approaching scientific accuracy, what has happened recently that would encourage anyone to feel more upbeat about the economy?
For those who live in ivory towers or in the canyons of Wall Street, here is what those of us out in the country are seeing. We know people who are out of work and have been out of work for a very long time. We know college graduates who have gotten their degrees from fine institutions and can’t find even an entry-level job. We know that gas and food prices have gone up since last year. We’ve watched businesses close. We’ve seen houses in the area sold at foreclosure and other houses in the neighborhood that seem to have been on the market forever.
So don’t tell us that some arcane leading economic indicator should cause us all to be doing handsprings. We’ll believe the economy is getting better when our nephew can find a job and the house down the block gets sold. Until then, understand that we are going to be cautious, and careful — and don’t be “surprised” that we are staying that way.